A Gallup tracking poll over a 22-day period (Aug. 15 to Sept. 6) suggested that Senator Barack Obama with 46.77 percentage points led Senator John McCain with 43.36 percentage points, a small difference of 3.41 points.
But if you calculated the average percentage for the first 12 days of that period (Aug. 15 to Aug. 26) and you compare it with the average percentage for the 10 days following the conventions (Aug. 27 to Sept. 6) you will notice a difference. Interestingly, the difference between the two candidates moves from 1.17 points to 6.10 points in favor of Obama. In summary, the data indicate that the technical tie can be overcome, although the tie was confirmed again on Sept. 6.
What this means for the next 60 days of the electoral campaign is a crucial question.
The two candidates will try to mobilize their parties as well as the mass of undecided and independent voters.
Obama must demonstrate that he is a new leader and that people can rely on the change he proposes. McCain will continue to insist that his leadership is different from that of President Bush, said Matthew Baum, a professor at Harvard University, and David Redlawsk, a professor at Iowa University.